No. 41: Three Things in African Markets You Need to Know This Week – October 28

President Zuma Skips Monday’s innovaBRICS & Beyond Conferencelink

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma cancelled his scheduled Monday appearance in London at the innovaBRICS conference, hosted by Deloitte. South African publication City Press reported that President Zuma cancelled his appearance due to not being able to secure a meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron, a claim the Presidency denies. Apparently, this is his second time canceling an appearance in London in the past year. I do not know how these things go in diplomatic circles, but I am sure a few folks involved in the planning for this let out a few curses. I also wonder if President Zuma’s inability to land a meeting with Prime Minister Cameron had some connection to South Africa’s refusal of the Dalai Lama’s visa application to the attend the Nobel Peace conference in Cape Town that was scheduled for October 13, but postponed due to protests from other Nobel laureates.

Nigerian Stock Exchange Keeps Moving On Up linkThe Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) announced this morning that it secured full membership to the World Federation of Exchanges. The NSE has been going through the process of securing membership for the past three years, pretty much the entire time that its CEO, Oscar Onyema, has been leading the company. Other notable members include Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and four other African exchanges – the Egyptian Exchange, Bourse de Casablanca, Stock Exchange of Mauritius, and Johannesburg Stock Exchange. This membership serves as another notch in the belt as the NSE strengthens its operations and positions itself as a ideal platform for global investors to place their funds.

East African Countries Continue Exploration of Geothermal Energylink

The 5th African Rift Geothermal Conference takes place this Wednesday through Friday in Tanzania. For the past several years East African countries have been working to tap into the region’s geothermal energy potential. Kenya plans to have geothermal energy make up about 5,000MW of its energy portfolio by 2030. The country currently has capacity of 210MW, according to KenInvest, the country’s investment promotion arm. The rest of the region is still in exploration mode, excluding Ethiopia which has about 7MW of capacity.

No. 26: As a Third Grader, I Broke Up a Fight Between Two Fifth Graders

Credit: CBS

And thankfully, Mark Mobius aka Lex Luthor is breaking up the fight going on between emerging and developed markets on US Federal Reserve Bank guidance rumors. The dance has gone something like this:

Emerging Markets: Sigh, the Fed is being pretty tight with it’s currency. Come on coach, let emerging markets spin!

Ben Bernanke: Policy accommodations are warranted. You get cash! You get cash! You get cash! Everybody gets cash!

Emerging Markets: Invest in [Insert Emerging Market country]. Check out our growing middle class, enormous investment returns, and sandy beaches.

Ben Bernanke: My arm is getting a little tired from throwing these hundreds, so I’m thinking I’m going to wrap this thing up a little early.

Chorus aka Traders: Sell!

Emerging Markets: Wait! Hold up! Oh snaps, what are we going to do? (Christine LaGarde’s name pops up on the cellphone)

Jim O’Neill: Why are you crying? Quit being punks. Step up your financial market game. Give me one good reason why US currency continues to be more important to your economy than your currency is to developed markets. (Silence) That’s what I thought. Quit crying.

Richard Koo: Welp, that’s what you get for not making some hard decisions and preventing US currency from impacting your economy so heavily.

Mark Mobius aka Lex Luthor: Hey. Everybody calm down. Looking historically, emerging markets are killing the game with the returns they are generating for investors. Their foreign exchange reserves are larger than those of developed markets. And, their debt-to-GDP ratios are typically lower. That’s attractive, and if emerging markets keep it up, will remain so for a while. A bump in the road here and there will only make them stronger. Furthermore, there’s still a ton of liquidity out there. Ben has been throwing dollars Lil Wayne style. On another note, do you like my creme suits?

My Take

Mark Mobius is spot on. Involving oneself in emerging markets is a long-term play.  Because of that, traders looking for quick hits are going to find themselves in panic-mode more often than they would like – especially if they have not done thorough research. Commit to the long-term, do the homework, don’t panic, and investors won’t regret the experience.

Emerging market policy makers have a tough line to walk. Consumers in emerging markets are working hard to be able to afford Nando’s (delicious stuff). Policy makers in efforts to create a virtuous cycle of FDI are trying to put consumers in a position to meet their aspirational tastes. At the same time, emerging markets must instill the discipline necessary to position their citizens for Singapore-like sustainable growth. That takes hard teamwork from all stakeholders. Done well, I anticipate having fewer restless nights pondering why Africa is so far back.

I agree with Jim O’Neill’s challenge to emerging markets to develop their financial markets and reduce their dependence on US currency.  A few years ago, Nigeria’s Central Bank shifted a portions of its foreign exchange reserve to include Chinese Renminbi.  Will we see other Central Banks doing more of this? The newly minted East African Exchange and the continued work of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria are examples of African countries taking steps to strengthen their financial markets.

The Work Continues

The emerging market sell-off that has been going on for the past few months has been frustrating to watch. It must reinforce the urgency with which emerging market policy makers create environments for wealth creation locally and globally. The investors who conduct country-specific research rather than look for key words will continue to do well. At the end of the day, folks are going to make money.

No. 20: African Countries Drive Geothermal Development Amid US-China Brinksmanship

A geothermal well at the Menengai crater. Credit: Suleiman Mbatiah

United Nations climate talks end today in South Africa and the United States and China are playing chicken on who will take the lead in stewarding the environment well while also driving economic development. Quietly, Kenya has signed major deals just this year that will see the opening of at least three plants that will grow Kenya’s geothermal capacity to 514 megawatts (MW) by 2014. By 2030, Kenya aims for geothermal energy to make up 5000 MW of the total 15,000 MW of power the country will produce to meet growing demand – an estimated $16 billion investment. Imagine that, an African country driving the uptake of clean and renewable energy.

Experts estimate that Kenya has the potential to generate 7,000 MW to 10,000 MW. The country began developing geothermal in the 1980s and currently produces about 209 MW. In 2008, the country set its geothermal power goal in the Vision 2030 strategic plan. Since that time Kenya has aggressively grown geothermal with the 36 MW expansion of the 48 MW Olkaria III, the construction of the 280 MW Olkaria IV, and the drilling of the 1,600 MW Menengai field.

Contrary to what the Wall Street Journal reported on December 6, Kenya is not the only African country developing geothermal energy. Kenya lies within the East African Rift System that runs 6,500km from Tunisia to Mozambique. In a recent conversation with Dr. Meseret Zemedkun of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), she explained that some countries in the East African region are looking to complement their current hydropower capacity, while others like Eritrea and Djibouti are looking for primary renewable energy sources. Ethiopia has drilled a pilot 7 MW plant. Eritrea is conducting detailed exploration. Djibouti is drilling wells, and Uganda and Rwanda are conducting semi-detailed and detailed exploration.

According to Dr. Zemedkun, “[African] countries are very keen to develop their resources.” She cited the high availability rate of geothermal compared to hydropower – 90-95 percent versus 50-55 percent. Changes in weather impact the availability of hydropower whereas geothermal energy is not impacted by changes in weather. Furthermore, enhanced technology is reducing the unit price of geothermal energy, increasing its accessibility to African countries.

Dr. Zemedkun is currently driving the African Rift Geothermal Project, an initiative that brings together several African countries in working to build their geothermal capacity. It also helps reduce the risks of exploration through exploration studies, site selection, and surface exploration. UNEP partners with the World Bank in this work, leveraging its risk mitigation fund to further the exploration of geothermal energy.

I am excited about the work Kenya is doing to develop its geothermal energy capacity. Its leadership has also kickstarted the exploration of geothermal energy in other countries along the East African Rift System. Hopefully, the US and China will figure out a way to do their part and contribute to the preservation of this earth while meeting the economic needs of their citizens.